By 2030, an estimated 15 million people are expected to be using GLP-1 drugs for weight loss. We wanted to know: What opportunities does this present for food retailers and brands? If people on weight-loss programs buy less food, how do they compensate for nutrition? We’re asking users of weight-loss programs how changes in diet are changing their grocery baskets.
GLP-1, the Quick Fix for Weight Loss: How Does it Change Grocery Carts and Nutrition?
The more people who try to lose weight using GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro, the more retailers and food brands are likely to see declines in certain category sales. And more people, hoping for a quick weight-loss fix, are on these prescription drugs, as well as other diet products and programs.
As of January 2024, more than 12% of U.S households included someone taking a GLP-1 drug for weight loss, according to a report in Morgan Stanley. That’s up one full percentage point from October 2023. And by 2030, Morgan Stanley projects as many as 50 million Americans may be taking a GLP-1 medication.
What’s more, the drug (initially introduced for diabetes) is inspiring the use of other weight-loss methods. Six in 10 Americans are now trying to lose weight. Nearly 4 million people subscribe to WW (Weight Watchers), which has introduced a GLP-1 program. And Costco now offers an affordable GLP-1 program, CostcoWeightLoss.com, for just $179 for three months, a bargain for Costco members. (A GLP-1 prescription, used off-label for weight loss, can run more than $1,000 a month.)
The consumers on these programs are changing their shopping patterns because they are less hungry. Namely, current GLP-1 users buy 6% to 9% less food – notably snacks, sweets and processed goods.
So we wondered: What’s the shift in appetite look like in their grocery carts? If shoppers on GLP-1 or other weight-loss products are spending less on sweets, snacks and high-carb foods, perhaps they’re buying more of other categories. In particular, we wondered if shoppers are seeking more offerings to supplement their nutrition with vitamins and supplements?
How America Shops® Is Exploring the Shopping Cart on GLP-1
Regardless of the answer, we sensed an opportunity for brands and retailers to fill the nutrition gap. So for our upcoming How America Shops® report, we’re asking consumers trying to lose weight what’s in their grocery carts and how they’re fortifying their nutrition and immune systems.
Among the types of questions we’re asking:
- Do you feel like you need to lose weight?
- If so, what programs, methods or products have you tried?
- How would you describe your experience on weight loss drugs?
- Since taking weight-loss drugs: What categories are you taking out of your shopping cart? What categories are you buying more of?
- How much more are you thinking about supplementing your nutrition? Are you buying more new categories, such as vitamins, supplements and/or protein drinks?
The results of these questions will inform the insights of our next report and June symposium, “Beyond Wellness: The Future of Health – What Shoppers Really Want.”
Is There a Counter-Movement Brewing?
By the counter movement, we mean sometimes some people just want a Twinkie! Such occasional indulgences have their benefits, too – to relieve stress, satisfy a craving for a self-treat or simply to rise up and take a stand.
Stay Tuned: There’s More to Come From How America Shops®
Knowing what’s now and next among shoppers takes a lot of work. We know it. That’s why our How America Shops® researchers are continuously following the trends and gathering insights into what’s influencing consumers. Stay tuned for our upcoming report and symposium, “Beyond Wellness: The Future of Health – What Shoppers Really Want,” here.